Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz predicted that former President Donald Trump could win nearly a third of the black vote in his rematch with President Biden in November.
While black voters have historically backed Democrats by wide margins in recent decades, the Biden Campaign is attempting to deal with months of troubling polling data on the key demographic’s preferences for 2024.
In 2020, NBC’s exit polls found that 87 percent of black voters backed Joe Biden. According to last April’s survey, Biden leads Trump with a 71% to 13% advantage, a massive decrease from 2020 highs. Black voter enthusiasm also appears to be down, as just 59% of black voters said they had significant interest in the 2024 election, down from 74% who said the same four years ago at a similar point in the race.
During an appearance on CNN, Luntz pointed to both the polling trends and personal anecdotes before making a prediction that would have major implications on the race if realized.
“But specifically with black voters, it’s not all black voters, it’s younger black voters and particularly younger black men,” Luntz said. “I discovered this when I got off a plane at JFK, when two baggage handlers came