The race is tied in a two-way sample, and Trump is up one if you include third-party candidates.
That’s the bottom line in the NYT/Siena Poll, and that is terrible news for Kamala Harris.
Breaking News: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are deadlocked, the final New York Times/Siena College national poll finds. The electorate has rarely seemed so evenly divided. https://t.co/IXDSy2jeM5
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 25, 2024
If you don’t know much about American politics, you would call this race a toss-up, and in a sense, it still is. Kamala Harris COULD win, even without cheating perhaps, but the odds are very much stacked against her. In recent decades, the Democrats needed a 2-3 point national popular vote lead to win in the Electoral College, and there is little reason to believe that this time is different.
That’s because Democrat voters are more tightly packed than Republican voters. Massive numbers of them live in a few states, just as Democrats tend to congregate in deep blue cities while Republicans are more evenly distributed everywhere else. The less urban the area, the more Republican.
Swing states are swing states because there is more of a