In a major shift in its recent assessment of Iran’s intentions, Israeli intelligence reportedly now believes that Iran is preparing a major strike on Israel after all — and that it will happen in the next few days. This comes after Israel had concluded that international pressure and US saber-rattling had persuaded Iran to leave it to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to strike Israel for blowing up Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant shared his country’s latest assessment with US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin in a Sunday conversation, Axios reported — telling Austin that Iranian actions signify the country is readying a major strike. Also on Sunday, Gallant told an Israeli Defense Forces unit that Iran and Hezbollah “are threatening to harm us in a way they haven’t done in the past.”
Israeli intelligence’s see-sawing assessment reflects an ongoing debate inside the Iranian government, a source with access to the intelligence told Axios:
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] is pushing for a more severe and broader response than Iran’s April 13