Kamala Harris is currently polling worse against Donald Trump than both Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, based on recent polling data.
As of August 31, 2024, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average shows Harris leading Trump by just 1.8 points nationally. In terms of the Electoral College, without considering toss-up states, Harris is ahead by a mere two electoral votes. Historically, Trump has tended to outperform his poll numbers.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls but Trump ultimately won the election. Similarly, while Joe Biden won in 2020, several swing states were decided by narrow margins.
Looking at historical data from RCP, Clinton led Trump by 4.6 points nationally at the same point in 2016, more than double Harris’ current lead. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 6.3 points around this time, over three times the margin Harris holds today.
The current polling situation could be concerning for Harris, especially as the media has reportedly been less critical of her compared to Trump in recent months, following her stepping in as the Democratic nominee.
The Democratic National Convention may have been one of the last major opportunities for her to