Trump and Kamala were head to head but now Trump has opened a 10 point lead according to a new election model made by The Daily Mail. The model, which analyzes the latest polling data, historical election trends, and key economic indicators, calculates the likelihood of each candidate winning the electoral college in November.
While it still predicts Harris is more likely to win the popular vote—giving her 50.8 percent support and a 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes—it shows Trump gaining an edge where it matters most: in the key battleground states.
With the pivotal Blue Wall states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—trending toward Trump, the model gives him a 55.2 percent chance of securing the White House, compared to Harris’ 44.6 percent. There’s only a slim possibility of an electoral tie.
To break it down, the model runs multiple scenarios for every state, accounting for different outcomes. On average, Trump comes out on top 55.2 percent of the time—a four-point increase since earlier in the week and a nine-point rise since his post-debate low.
This suggests the race will be a close one, despite the dramatic events of recent months, including President Joe Biden stepping