Donald Trump is now the favorite to win November’s presidential election, according to the latest data published by 338Canada.
The study, released by the election analysis website on Monday, gave Trump a 51 percent chance of winning, compared with 49 percent for Harris. It was a notable change from the last 338Canada analysis, from October 8, which gave Harris a 52 percent change of victory versus 47 percent for Trump, with a 1 percent chance of a tie.
The key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin all switched from being more likely to back Harris to Trump between October 8 and 15. Polling also suggests Trump’s position has improved over the past couple of weeks.
A recent Quinnipiac University survey gave Trump a 3 point lead over Harris in Michigan, and a 2 point lead in Wisconsin. A forecast released by The Economist last week, based on “over 10,000 simulations of the election,” had Trump receiving an average of 270 Electoral College votes, just enough for victory. Two weeks earlier, The Economist gave Trump an average of 257 Electoral College votes, which would hand Harris the race.
The latest 338Canada analysis predicted Trump will receive between 203 and