After the release of a major New York Times/Siena College poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck, the paper’s chief political analyst is warning liberal Americans to brace for a surprise on Election Day.
Trump famously outperformed most polling in both 2016 and 2020, and the Times’ Nate Cohn has identified a sign that he believes may foreshadow yet another shock for the Democrats.
The survey of 7,879 likely voters across seven key battleground states reveals a tight race between Harris and Trump.
Conducted via phone, the survey shows Harris holding narrow leads in several states: three points in Nevada, two points in both North Carolina and Wisconsin, and a single point in Georgia.
In Pennsylvania, the candidates are locked in a virtual tie, though Harris has a slight edge.
Trump, meanwhile, is leading in Michigan by a razor-thin margin and leads by four points in Arizona.
“Four years ago, the polls were thought to underestimate Mr. Trump because of nonresponse bias — in which his supporters were less likely to take surveys than demographically similar Biden supporters,” Cohn wrote in his analysis.
“Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to