Chance of winning the presidency
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with “fundamental” factors like incumbency and each district’s partisan lean. This graph tracks each candidate’s probability of winning the presidential election over time.
Electoral College Projections
Trump: 272Harris: 266
This graph tracks each candidate’s projected Electoral College vote share over time.
Chance of winning each state
This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each candidate winning individual states. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Harris victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Trump. Use the ‘DEM’ and ‘GOP’ filters to view states most likely to support their respective party’s nominee.
Electoral College Simulations
These graphs represent the distribution of outcomes from 14,000,605 simulations of the Electoral College vote for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The outcomes shaded in lighter colors to the left of the dotted line indicate scenarios where a candidate loses, while those in darker colors to the right of the line represent a win. Each bar shows the percentage of simulations resulting in that specific electoral vote count.
Our model currently projects a 0.4% chance of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.
Featured Races