Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill. In a note Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.” The firm raised its forecast for inflation this year to 3.5%, cut its GDP outlook to just 1% and raised its unemployment view to 4.5%. U.S. President Donald Trump announces that his administration has reached a deal with elite law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom during a swearing-in ceremony in the Oval Office at the White House on March 28, 2025 in Washington, DC. Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
With decision day looming this week for President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.
The investment bank now expects that tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points, its previous “risk-case” scenario that now appears more likely when